Prediction, pick for Jacob Malkoun vs. Torrez Finney at UFC 325: Grappler vs. Striker Showdown
Prediction, pick for Jacob Malkoun vs. Torrez Finney at UFC 325: Grappler vs. Striker Showdown
UFC 325 is shaping up to be a monumental card, and while the main events grab the headlines, the Middleweight division clash between Jacob Malkoun and Torrez Finney offers some of the most intriguing stylistic questions of the night. This is a classic wrestling pedigree versus aggressive striking confrontation, setting the stage for a potential 'Fight of the Night' candidate on the preliminary card.
As a Senior SEO Content Writer who has tracked the trajectory of these rising stars—and perhaps, more intimately, as someone who once mistakenly bet against a grinder like Malkoun only to watch him systematically shut down a flashy striker—I know the danger inherent in underestimating the pressure applied by elite control artists. Finney brings the flash, but Malkoun brings the fundamentals necessary for sustained Octagon success. The stakes are high; a win here means serious momentum in the competitive 185-pound weight class.
Our analysis cuts through the noise to provide a definitive prediction. We dissect the tale of the tape, analyze their recent performances, and pinpoint the critical path to victory for both men. If you are looking for the sharpest pick for this UFC 325 preliminary bout, read on.
Fighter Breakdown and Tale of the Tape: The Middleweight Division Contenders
Jacob Malkoun (8-3) is the definition of a relentless pressure fighter. Hailing from Australia, Malkoun’s record might not be flawless, but his wins showcase dominant control time and suffocating top pressure. He is a protégé of Robert Whittaker, which speaks volumes about his work ethic and technical consistency.
Malkoun’s approach is rarely flashy. He aims to close the distance, initiate the clinch, and transition quickly to powerful takedowns. Once on the mat, his ground-and-pound is heavy, focused on controlling the hips and breaking the opponent's will. His best performances are often decisions where he successfully executes his game plan for fifteen minutes straight, utilizing superior conditioning and wrestling defense.
Torrez Finney (8-1), on the other hand, is the surging prospect entering this bout with significant momentum. Finney is known for his dynamic, powerful striking and fast hands. His sole loss came early in his career, and he has since cleaned up his record with impressive finishing ability, primarily via T/KO. He provides a sharp contrast to Malkoun’s grinding style.
Finney operates best at range, utilizing crisp boxing and powerful kicks to keep opponents respecting his striking threat. His ability to switch stances and mix up his attacks makes him unpredictable on the feet. The key question for Finney is whether his wrestling defense (TDD) can hold up against the sheer volume of takedown attempts that Malkoun is guaranteed to throw at him.
Key Stats Snapshot:
- Jacob Malkoun: High Control Time, 70% Takedown Accuracy, Low striking output but high power ground strikes.
- Torrez Finney: High significant strike rate (SS), 80% Knockout ratio, Questionable Takedown Defense against elite wrestlers.
Malkoun has demonstrated superior endurance over three rounds, often maintaining his grappling intensity from the first bell to the last. Finney, while explosive, has not faced a grappler who commits to the strategy with the unrelenting commitment that Malkoun does.
Strategic Matchups and Betting Odds Analysis
The success of this fight hinges entirely on who dictates the geography of the Octagon. If the fight stays standing for more than 60% of the duration, Finney has a massive advantage. If Malkoun can secure takedowns in the first half of each round, the path to victory opens wide for the Australian.
The Grappling Exchange vs. Striking Defense
Malkoun’s primary mission will be to enter the pocket safely. Finney possesses serious stopping power, meaning Malkoun cannot afford sloppy entries. Look for Malkoun to employ feints and cage pressure to back Finney up, minimizing the space for Finney’s powerful counter-hooks and body shots.
Finney must focus intensely on sprawling and immediately getting back to his feet. Staying on the bottom against Malkoun, even for just a minute, is costly. It saps cardio, removes the threat of his offense, and scores highly for the wrestling dominant fighter. Finney’s striking defense will be less about slipping punches and more about managing distance to avoid the inevitable level changes.
When analyzing the odds, Malkoun often opens as a slight favorite due to the perceived safety and reliability of his grappling game. Grinders tend to be less volatile in betting markets than knockout artists, whose outcomes are often binary (finish or fatigue). The betting line here reflects this: Malkoun is typically favored around -150, indicating the bookmakers trust his ability to implement the suffocating grappling strategy over Finney’s high-risk, high-reward striking.
If Finney cannot maintain his TDD above 75%, those odds will look justified. A successful striker-grappler clash often comes down to the efficiency of the wrestling. If Malkoun uses too much energy securing the takedown, he risks tiring himself out, allowing Finney to capitalize in the later rounds.
- Malkoun’s Path to Victory: Takedown early, maintain pressure in the clinch, secure control time, and win via clear-cut unanimous decision (30-27).
- Finney’s Path to Victory: Utilize lateral movement, defend the first two takedown attempts of each round, and punish Malkoun with striking combinations in the open space, securing a TKO in R1 or R2.
Finney must be wary of the feigned level change. Malkoun is skilled at disguising his entries, often pairing a jab with a sudden drop for the double leg. If Finney bites on the striking, he’s already halfway to the mat.
The Final Prediction and Official Pick for UFC 325
This fight is a true test of wills. While Finney presents the immediate, explosive threat, the consistency and quality of Jacob Malkoun’s fundamental grappling are difficult to overcome, especially when the preparation time is limited or the pressure is high on the UFC main stage.
Malkoun has shown resilience in tough spots and, crucially, he does not panic when tagged. He understands his strengths and reverts immediately to the pressure game plan. Finney, while aggressive, has not faced the caliber of top control that Malkoun routinely demonstrates against divisional gatekeepers.
Our prediction leans heavily on the assumption that Malkoun successfully executes 3-4 takedowns over the 15 minutes. Even if Finney gets back to his feet twice per round, the time spent defending the takedown and recovering from the energy drain will significantly reduce his striking output and precision.
The longer the fight goes, the more the momentum shifts inexorably towards Malkoun. By the third round, Finney’s explosiveness will likely be tempered by fatigue, allowing Malkoun easier entries and prolonged control time against the fence.
This is a fight where the wrestler dictates the pace, minimizes the striking exchanges, and secures a comfortable lead on the judges' scorecards. While a Malkoun submission is possible given Finney’s potential exhaustion, the consistent method of victory for Malkoun has been through strategic dominance.
Official Prediction: Jacob Malkoun wins via Unanimous Decision.
The Pick: Back Jacob Malkoun to maintain his methodical winning streak and assert his grinding dominance over the aggressive yet defensively vulnerable Torrez Finney at UFC 325. This fight reinforces the old adage: positions win rounds, and Malkoun is a master of position.
We anticipate scores of 29-28 or 30-27 for Malkoun, provided he avoids getting clipped early in the striking exchanges. Watch for the volume of takedown attempts in Round 1—that will be the earliest indicator of how this bout will unfold.
Prediction, pick for Jacob Malkoun vs. Torrez Finney at UFC 325
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